A Norwegian home win over Kazakhstan on Sunday is very likely, an Austrian point loss against a Slovenian team that was outclassed by Norway, a little less likely. Both parts are needed for Norway to finish at the top and move straight up.
If Norway finishes second in its group, a home and away match against a group third from the A division awaits in March. Then it is about the right to play at the highest level in the national league next time. Norway has never done that.
On Tuesday evening, all the national league groups will be finished, and three days later both the play-offs for the eight best placed in the A division and the various promotion/relegation matches will be drawn. At the moment, these are Norway’s possible opponents in battles for A status:
Possible rivals
Group 1: Poland (possibly Croatia or Scotland).
Group 2: Belgium (possibly Israel).
Group 3: Hungary or the Netherlands.
Group 4: Serbia (possibly Denmark or Switzerland).
With 2nd place in the national league group, Norway will not be able to get an extra chance in the play-off if the team is not among the top two in its WC qualification group next year. Promotion, on the other hand, will provide strong opponents in the next national league in two years’ time and an almost guaranteed extra chance if the team is not successful in the regular EC qualification for the play-offs in 2028.
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Worth its weight in gold
Thursday’s victory in Slovenia was worth its weight in gold for Norway’s chances of ending up at the 2nd seeding level when the WC qualification is drawn on 13 December. The probability that Norway will be seeded at level two increased considerably, although it is still not certain.
With a new, and expected, victory against Kazakhstan at Ullevaal on Sunday, it will probably be completely clear that Norway will avoid falling to the third level in the seeding.
Currently, these are the seeding levels:
Level 1: Spain, France, Belgium, England, Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Germany, Croatia, Denmark, Switzerland, Austria.
Level 2: Poland, Hungary, Serbia, Ukraine, Turkey, Sweden, Wales, Slovakia, Romania, Norway, Greece, Czech Republic.
Level 3: Scotland, Slovenia, Ireland, Finland, Albania, Georgia, Iceland, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Northern Ireland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Israel.
Level 4: Bulgaria, Luxembourg, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Kosovo, Cyprus, Lithuania, Belarus, Armenia, Faroe Islands, Latvia.
Level 5: Moldova, Malta, Liechtenstein, Gibraltar, Andorra, San Marino.
In the WC qualification, there will be six groups with five teams and six with four teams. The 12 group winners will be WC-ready, while all runners-up and four group winners from the national league will settle for the last four WC places in a replay.
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