The NFL’s offensive landscape has been shifting dramatically since the mid-2010s.
Remember when passing was all the rage? Teams were lighting up the scoreboard, averaging a staggering 480 passing yards per game in 2015 and 2016.
It was a golden age for quarterbacks and receivers, while running backs watched from the sidelines as rushing yards plummeted to levels not seen since the late 1990s.
But the winds of change are blowing again. As the 2024 season gets going, a trend is raising eyebrows across the league.
If things continue this way, we might be looking at the lowest average passing yards per game in more than three decades.
So, what’s behind this seismic shift? Jonathan Owens of the NFL on CBS points to a defensive revolution.
“We’ve looked at several reasons why passing is historically down this season, and I believe there’s no singular reason. But a leading one? The NFL Numbers Folks show two-high safety looks have increased from 44 percent to 63 percent in just five seasons,” Jones wrote on X.
We’ve looked at a number of reasons why passing is historically down this season, and I believe there’s no singular reason. But a leading one? The NFL Numbers Folks™️ show 2-high safety looks have increased from 44% to 63% in just five seasons https://t.co/OMV9vwTwPE
— Jonathan Jones (@jjones9) September 25, 2024
Teams are embracing multi-safety schemes like never before, with formations such as Cover 2, Cover 4 and Cover 6 becoming the norm rather than the exception.
Owens also dug deeper into Next Gen Stats’ player location data, comparing the first three weeks of the 2024 season to the 2019 campaign.
The visual difference is striking. Gone are the days of aggressive press coverage and lone high safeties.
Instead, we’re seeing what Owens calls a “red crab” formation: linebackers hanging back and safeties playing deeper than ever.
This defensive shift is having a real impact on the game.
Quarterbacks are feeling the squeeze, with the average air yards per pass attempt dropping to a decade-low 7.7 yards.
Deep passes? They’re becoming a rare sight, falling from 10.2 per game in 2019 to just 7.7 in 2024.
As defenses adapt and evolve, offenses are being forced to rethink their strategies.
The days of easy deep bombs might be over, replaced by a more methodical, short passing game.
It’s a chess match playing out on fields across the league, and right now, it looks like defense is making a comeback.
