LOS ANGELES — After another loss, this one of the 37-20 variety to the Philadelphia Eagles, Rams head coach Sean McVay was once again asked about his offense’s third-down conversion rate.
It’s been a recurring issue for the Rams (5-6) this season, especially in the previous three games in which the Rams failed to convert more than 25% of their attempts on third downs. But Sunday marked a new low, as the Rams went 0-for-8, their first time failing to convert a single third down all season.
“There’s a lot of different reasons. It wasn’t one thing in particular,” McVay said. “But that hasn’t been successful enough. It’s been an area that we have to be better at, no doubt about it.”
The Rams rank 31st in the NFL, ahead of only Cleveland, in third-down conversion percentage with a 31.71% mark. They are similarly 31st in estimated points added (EPA) on third downs at -0.287 per play.
The Rams actually have a respectable success rate when running the ball on third down at 54.5%. But they aren’t getting into enough and-short situations to justify handoffs on third downs, as evidenced by Sunday’s performance.
The Rams lined up for 11 third downs on Sunday, though three were nullified by penalty. They faced an average distance of 9.4 yards on those plays. This number is slightly inflated by two 10-yard penalties committed by the Rams on third downs; as far as what distance the Rams had earned through their work on first and second downs, the number is 7.9 yards.
On their eight third-down plays that were allowed to stand, the Rams ran seven pass plays and one run, a white-flag handoff on third-and-13 that gained 8 yards. On the seven drop backs, quarterback Matthew Stafford completed 2 of 4 passes for 10 yards while being sacked three times, all on to-go distances of 9 or greater yards in which Philadelphia’s pass rushers knew what was coming.
“We didn’t put ourselves in a lot of favorable ones today,” Stafford said. “You don’t do that against that defense, it’s going to be difficult. No doubt there are some that we can convert on, look back on but it takes great execution by everybody to convert on third down. We just gotta do a better job.”
The Rams actually did move the sticks after one third down, a third-and-16, but did not get credit for it in the stat book because it came via a Philadelphia pass interference penalty.
So then, what did the Rams do to put themselves in these unfavorable situations? Let’s take a look at the first and second downs in the second quarter or later, given the Rams did not reach third down until the second quarter.
The Rams ran the ball 10 times and dialed up 24 drop backs on first and second downs after the first quarter; given the nature of the blowout loss, the imbalance in play calls is not surprising. On the 10 carries, the Rams managed 23 yards and allowed three tackles for loss. Stafford was also sacked twice while completing 14 of 22 attempts.
And this is where inconsistent execution in the run game is hurting the Rams, a team that wants to power the ball down defenses’ throats using their big bodies on the line and duo blocking.
The Rams have made a heavy investment in this aspect of the team over the last two years. The second-round pick spent on guard Steve Avila. Big contracts paid to interior linemen Kevin Dotson and Jonah Jackson. The addition of Blake Corum in the third round in April to take some of the load off starting back Kyren Williams.
But 11 games into the season, injuries and shuffling rotations along the offensive line have made that goal difficult to achieve. But that doesn’t stop the Rams in believing it can still be their identity.
“I think we know what we’re really about and how to get where we want to get. I think we’ll lean a little bit more on the run,” Dotson said in the post-game locker room Sunday. “I feel like our run game is a little I guess underrated. I feel like we run it pretty good when we actually get it all set. It’s just the matter of fact of getting ourselves in situations where running is better.”
“When you’re looking at a lot of third-and-longs and the opportunity for a rush to kind of play with their hair set on fire, it definitely presents a lot of difficulties for anybody in this league,” receiver Puka Nacua added. “It’s the physical game of football that has been playing for a long time and it starts in the trenches and being able to make sure that we can protect our back and not allowing safeties to kind of cap off on some of our hits and stuff like that, being able to get to that second level with a great push.”