News editor at Cycling Weekly, Adam brings his weekly opinion on the goings on at the upper echelons of our sport. This piece is part of The Leadout, a newsletter series from Cycling Weekly and Cyclingnews. To get this in your inbox, subscribe here. As ever, email [email protected] – should you wish to add anything, or suggest a topic.
The good news, I suppose, is that Tadej Pogačar almost certainly won’t win stage one of next year’s Tour de France. The opening day will probably end in a sprint, with the yellow jersey heading to the shoulders of a fast man, but who could rule anything out for the Slovenian. The UAE Team Emirates rider won the final three stages of this year’s Tour, and already, nine months out from the 2025 edition, he is the overwhelming favourite. It is almost impossible to design a route which wouldn’t favour Pogačar, and this certainly isn’t that. Aside from a few more punchy finishes, it’s hard to know what else would be on his wish list.
The Tour de France 2025 route is a climber’s course – although when is it anything else – and the man atop the podium will be someone who can excel in the thin air of the Alps and Pyrenees, although there is barely a moment to switch off elsewhere.
While Pogačar ends this year, and will start 2025 as the a man to beat in everything he does, there is also hope for Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) in this route; there is a return to some of the places he has beaten his biggest rival in the past, including the Hautacam and the Col de la Loze, and the reappearance of a mountain time trial, a specialism the Dane has pressed home his advantage in before.
However, such was the dominance of Pogačar this year, that everyone else starts far behind in the power rankings. Even if Vingegaard enters next year’s race in perfect health, unlike this year, it seems hard to tell, this far away, if he can regain his position of superiority. Remember, though, he is the one who has proved that Pogačar is fallible before in 2021, and then 2022. Why not again?
There is no repeat of the incredibly tough opening to the 2024 Tour in Italy, with the Alps tackled as early as stage four – Pogačar took control of the yellow jersey that day and didn’t lose it all the way to Nice – but the opening hilly days are the kind of chaos that the 26-year-old thrives on. There is a 33km time trial in Caen on stage five, but it doesn’t look hard enough to really shake up the standings, and it is the only opportunity for pure rouleurs across the three weeks.
If Pogačar has not taken the race lead by the end of the opening week, then one can imagine him seizing control of yellow on stage 10 to Le Mont-Dore, with the day in the Massif Central seeing 4,400m of climbing, all of the punchy kind that the UAE rider is good at.
Then it’s straight to the Pyrenees, for a triple whammy of climbing action, including a return to Peyragudes, where he won in 2022. The stage to Hautacam will also be a chance for revenge – Pogačar lost over a minute to Vingegaard here that same year, and will already be plotting how to turn the tables this time around. It is a mountain time trial, though, one which will set the planners at Visma-Lease a Bike into overdrive already. If they could put over a minute into Pogačar on a similar ITT in 2023, perhaps they could power their way to a similar triumph this time around.
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The race is far from over, though. Mont Ventoux is back for the 19th time on stage 16. In 2021 it was where Vingegaard announced himself, matching Pogačar on the Giant of Provence; both will be itching to drop the other as it returns.
This is just small fry, though, compared to the next mountain test on stage 18, which will feature 5,500m of climbing, more than any stage ever. It finishes on the Col de la Loze, where Pogačar uttered “I’m gone, I’m dead” in 2023 as Vingegaard put minutes into him. There is unfinished business there for the Slovenian, but his Danish rival knows he can beat him there, at high altitude in the Alps. It is a mouth-watering battle.
2025 Pogačar, though, is not 2023 Pogačar. If 2024 is anything to go by, there will be fewer chinks in his armour, he seemed unbeatable this season. Next year’s Tour de France route holds few dangers for him, if he can match this year’s form, and the consistent hilly days over the 21 stages favour his punchy riding. Vingegaard, though, will be sure to be waiting, ready to topple his nemesis once again, if there is a hint of fallibility.
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