USC football at Washington: Who has the edge?

USC at WASHINGTON

When: 4:30 p.m. Saturday

Where: Husky Stadium, Seattle, Wash.

TV/radio: Big Ten Network/710 AM

Records: USC 4-4 overall, 2-4 Big Ten; Washington 4-4, 2-3 Big Ten

Line: USC by 2

Notable injuries

USC: OUT: CB Marcelles Williams (undisclosed); QUESTIONABLE: CB Jaylin Smith (undisclosed), S Kamari Ramsey (undisclosed), CB Jacobe Covington (undisclosed), CB Greedy Vance Jr. (undisclosed), DT Nate Clifton (undisclosed)

Washington: OUT: EDGE Zach Durfee (turf toe); QUESTIONABLE: S Cameron Broussard (undisclosed), LT Maximus McCree (dislocated thumb)

What’s at stake: Thousands didn’t see it last Friday night, a splotchy crowd at the Coliseum split between Dodger-mania and Lakers-Suns and a loaded Friday Night Lights slate in Southern California. But USC laid bare its standard, on a funky night in this era of collegiate-football realignment, against a Rutgers program playing into the wee hours on their body clock.

This win was a healthy dose of mouthwash, sloshing away the bitterness of a gut-punch three-game losing streak. The follow-up, taking on a scuffling but talented Washington program in front of the purple sea in Montlake, will set the tenor for USC’s home stretch. Will they build momentum for a push to win out – or crater heading into 2025?

Washington, meanwhile, has its own hunger at play here, bounced by double digits in back-to-back weeks and sitting at 1-3 in their last four games. New head coach Jedd Fisch’s offense, which gave USC fits in a thriller against Arizona last year at the Coliseum, is struggling. The Huskies need this one at home. Bad.

Who’s better? With the way each program’s season has unfolded, this is one of the more even talent splits USC has faced all season. On paper, neither program is a 4-4 team. Both boast solid-enough quarterback play, although Washington’s Will Rogers, a Mississippi State transfer, has struggled in recent weeks. Both feature steady, workhorse primary backs: Washington’s Jonah Coleman has 785 rushing yards, USC’s Woody Marks has 755). Both have a talented, deep contingent of pass-catchers.

That Washington offensive group has struggled mightily to move the ball in recent Big Ten weeks, totaling 33 points against Indiana and Iowa. But these Huskies stand alone in one category: pass defense, boasting the top-ranked unit in the FBS in limiting opposing teams to just 123 passing yards per game.

USC has proven more offensively. Washington is tougher defensively, particularly amid a rash of Trojan injuries. Take your pick.

Matchup to watch: Huskies cornerback Thaddeus Dixon vs. USC’s Makai Lemon. Or Ja’Kobi Lane. Or Duce Robinson. Or whichever receiver Lincoln Riley decides to trot out on the outside. Dixon has been one of the best corners in the nation in 2024, allowing just 11 catches on 31 targets this season, according to Pro Football Focus. Washington’s secondary doesn’t force a ton of turnovers; they simply blanket, and it’ll be a point to watch if any of USC’s sophomore gauntlet can separate consistently in one-on-one situations.

USC wins if: They can limit Coleman, an Arizona transfer who gashed USC in their matchup last year for 143 yards, to less than 100 yards on the ground … if tackles Mason Murphy and Elijah Paige can keep edge rushers Voi Tunuufi and Alphonzo Tuputala to a handful of pressures and give quarterback Miller Moss time through his progressions … if, conversely, young edge rushers like Kam Fountain, Sam Greene and Braylan Shelby can win a couple one-on-one battles against struggling Washington tackles.

Prediction: Washington 27, USC 24. This is a tough road environment for USC, particularly for a host of young defenders.

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