If tougher immigration policies mean a significant loss of workers, American business hardships will lean toward industries with lower-wage jobs.
President-elect Donald Trump has strongly hinted that he’ll order significant deportations of people living in the US without proper documentation. Others can debate the societal, constitutional and political ramifications of such a forced exodus, but my trusty spreadsheet is just looking at how many workers the nation’s economy could lose.
One challenge of debating the business value of immigrants – especially those without proper paperwork – is that statistics on the legal status of immigrant workers are hard to find.
Consider the Census Bureau’s statistics on worker citizenship. It tracks “noncitizens” – a broad category that includes workers from other countries who are approved to be employed in the US, plus those who don’t have such authorization.
Please remember this significant caveat as my spreadsheet looks at the census tally of employment sliced by citizenship for 2022, the latest data available.
Topline
By census math, there were 14.7 million “noncitizen” workers across the nation in 2022.
That flock equaled 9% of all people employed in 2022. And as one comparison, the US averaged 6 million officially unemployed workers that year.
So what kind of work do noncitizens do?
Census stats track employment by citizenship within 16 industries. The data doesn’t track wages but other figures tell us incomes for all workers in these industries. That gives us hints about what size paychecks noncitizens earn.
Start with this number: The typical American worker made $48,100-a-year median in 2023.
Next, consider that of those 16 industries tracked, nine produce annual incomes wages below the US norm, collectively running $35,000.
These low-wage industries employed 8.8 million noncitizens workers. That group equals 13% of total employment in these industries.
It’s a sharp contrast to the seven industries with wages above the norm, where the typical worker earns $66,500. These businesses had 5.9 million noncitizens on the job – just 7% of all their staffing.
Hot spots
So what US industries made the biggest bets on noncitizen workers?
Trades commonly with gritty workdays, often for meek pay. Think about these job clusters, ranked by the noncitizen worker’s share of all jobs …
Farming-fishing-forestry: 320,000 noncitizen workers – 33% of all jobs in the industry. The industry-wide median income was $28,800.
Building and grounds cleaning, maintenance: 1.5 million workers are noncitizens – that’s 28% of all jobs in an industry with typical annual incomes of $27,300.
Construction and extraction: 2.1 million noncitizens – 26% of all jobs with incomes of $46,200.
Food prep/serving: 1.3 million noncitizens – 16% of all jobs with incomes of $19,600.
Production-manufacturing: 1.1 million noncitizens – 14% of all jobs. Incomes of $42,000.
Computer-engineering-science: 1.4 million noncitizens – 13% of all jobs with incomes of $91,500.
Transportation, materials moving: 1.4 million noncitizens – 12% of all jobs. Incomes of $38,100.
Healthcare support: 456,000 noncitizens – 9% of all jobs with incomes of $30,300.
Installation, maintenance, and repair: 462,000 noncitizens – 9% of all jobs with incomes of $52,100.
Personal care and service: 354,000 noncitizens – 9% of all jobs. Incomes of $22,100.
Sales and related: 817,000 noncitizens – 6% of all jobs with incomes of $39,200.
Office and administrative support: 850,000 noncitizens – 5% of all jobs with incomes of $39,600.
Management, business, and financial: 1.5 million noncitizens – 5% of all jobs with incomes of $80,900.
Education, legal, community service, arts, and media: 725,000 noncitizens – 4% of all jobs with incomes of $51,200.
Protective service: 103,000 noncitizens – 3% of all jobs with incomes of $54,300.
Healthcare practitioners and technicians: 323,000 noncitizens – 3% of all jobs with incomes of $70,900.
Bottom line
Supporters of immigrant workers are an interesting coalition that includes numerous corporate types.
Let’s be honest. People without paperwork seem to find someone to hire them.
The business logic supporting noncitizen workers is rather simple. They often do jobs many Americans wouldn’t consider – and frequently do them cheaply.
Critics of these hiring habits say noncitizens – with or without authorization – often steal jobs from American citizens. Plus, their mere presence in the workforce lowers wages for competing US workers.
But who knows if there are enough citizens willing to do such work if job opportunities were created?
At a minimum, any large-scale deportations – or not-so-subtle nudges to exit – could be extremely disruptive to the industries heavy with workers lacking paperwork.
Postscript
Assuming a significant loss of noncitizen workers, it’s a reasonable guess that US employers will raise wages to fill the newly vacant positions.
Yes, that could put extra cash in citizens’ wallets. However, it’s also a decent assumption that these same bosses will pass along their higher labor expenses with increased prices of their products.
That might muddle the nation’s struggles with stubbornly high inflation.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]