Ballots are still being counted in California, but it’s already clear that voter turnout throughout the state this election cycle is on track to be lackluster.
And that may be part of a broader trend seen across the nation, particularly in Democratic strongholds.
California’s secretary of state estimates about 16 million Californians cast ballots in the election this year, a turnout of 69.3%, as of Wednesday morning, Nov. 20.
If that’s the case, “it would mark a significant decline in turnout,” according to the Public Policy Institute of California, “roughly 1.7 million fewer ballots than 2020, despite 550,000 more registered voters and 1.8 million more eligible residents.”
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California makes it incredibly easy to vote, especially compared to other states. All registered voters are mailed a ballot, and residents can return them through the mail, at their polling place, or, in some counties, at a ballot drop box or vote center, which opens a month before Election Day. Voters can also fill out ballots in person at their respective polling places or vote centers.
However, the state also makes it easier for people to register to vote. Eligible residents can automatically register when they obtain or renew their driver’s licenses.
“California has dramatically expanded the number of registered voters in recent years,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches political messaging at USC. “But people are automatically registered to vote, and then when they don’t vote, it shouldn’t be surprising that the percentage of voters goes down.”
“The state passed laws to register many more people, but they’re still figuring out how to get those people to actually vote,” Schnur said.
California launched its Motor Voter program — considered the top method in the state for registering new voters or updating existing registrations — in 2018.
In early January 2016, there were more than 17.2 million registered voters out of nearly 24.6 million eligible voters, or 70.2%, according to the secretary of state.
By October 2019, about 20.32 million people were registered to vote, out of 25.2 million who were eligible, or 80.65%.
Ahead of this year’s election, as of Oct. 21, 2024, nearly 22.6 million people were registered to vote, out of 26.9 million (83.96%), according to the secretary of state.
Nationwide, it appears that while traditional Republican strongholds turned out even more voters for President-elect Donald Trump, counties that had the largest Democratic victories in 2020 turned out fewer votes for Vice President Kamala Harris, a recent New York Times analysis found. Those left-leaning counties resulted in 1.9 million fewer votes for Harris than they had for President Joe Biden in 2020 while the red counties added an additional 1.2 million votes for Trump than the last cycle, the analysis found.
Schnur said he’s seeing that trend — traditional Democratic constituencies not as strong this cycle — across the country and in California.
“Kamala Harris has a lot of skills as a politician, but she’s an extremely cautious individual,” he said. “It’s entirely possible that that caution might have kept more Democrats from being motivated to turn out.”
Biden took more than 11.1 million votes in 2020 in California, or 63.5%.
As of Wednesday morning, Harris had about 9 million votes, or 58.7%. The secretary of state estimates there are about 570,000 ballots left to process and another 126,000 left to cure, the process for voters to fix a minor error, like a missing or mismatched signature on their ballot. (Votes cannot be changed during ballot curing.)
How voter turnout translates to close races
Statewide voter turnout “resembled a non-presidential (election) year,” said Marcia Godwin, who teaches political science at the University of La Verne.
“A lot of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents simply did not vote,” Godwin said. “The effect is more pronounced in San Bernardino County where turnout lags the statewide average. The Riverside County turnout is closer to the statewide average, but the electorate still was more Republican than would normally be expected in a presidential year.”
And while it’s still early to paint a full picture, it’s clear turnout can impact some of the close, yet-to-be-called races in Southern California.
Take the race for the state Senate District 35 seat, which represents parts of the South Bay and Southern L.A. County, for example, where two candidates with prior political experience faced off in a competitive contest to replace termed-out Sen. Steven Bradford.
The latest vote tallies showed Laura Richardson ahead of Michelle Chambers by 2,708 votes (just over 1 percentage point). So far, 241,934 votes have been counted in this race. It is on track to report a lower voter turnout than four years ago when 323,961 people voted in this race, and Bradford was reelected in a landslide victory.
Joel Fox, an adjunct professor at Pepperdine University who follows county government and local elections, said this year’s race was between two Democrats, which could have made voters less motivated to participate if they felt the candidates were similar and it mattered less who they voted for.
Or, if voters were unsure about the difference between the two candidates, some may have opted to sit out this race, Fox said.
“They’re both Democrats, so their policies are probably similar,” Fox said. “The voters are probably thinking, ‘Well, I can live with either one of them.’”
And then there was the race for California’s 41st congressional seat, where Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, was declared the winner more than a week after Election Day. Low voter turnout, among other things, contributed to Calvert’s reelection, said Godwin.
According to the latest data from the secretary of state Wednesday morning, 65.7% of registered voters in Los Angeles County participated in the election. In 2020, that figure was 74.63%; in 2016, it was 67.46%; and in 2012, it was 68.02%.
In the last five presidential election cycles, L.A. County reported the highest turnout in 2008 when 78.36% of registered voters cast ballots.
Orange County has boasted higher voter turnout than its neighboring counties in the past five presidential elections. The county is on track to continue that trend, although voter turnout is still lower than in years past.
So far, 74.6% of registered voters participated in this year’s elections, compared to 87.24% in 2020, 80.71% in 2016, 67.33% in 2012 and 72.62% in 2008.
In Riverside County, 67.3% of registered voters cast ballots this year, 81.91% in 2020, 75.48% in 2016, 70.98% in 2012 and 78.46% in 2008.
In San Bernardino County, 62.1% of registered voters participated in this year’s election, 77.32% in 2020, 75.77% in 2016, 69.24% in 2012 and 74.28% in 2008.