What’s at stake for immigrant-heavy communities under President-elect Donald Trump?
While the answer to that question is not yet clear, few places in the country are likely to be as deeply impacted by a second Trump presidency as California, where by some estimates, there are more undocumented immigrants than in any other state. In 2021, nearly 6 million people in California were undocumented or lived in a household with an undocumented family member.
Southern California, in particular, has a high undocumented population. In 2021, nearly 3 million residents across all Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties were undocumented or lived in a household with an undocumented family member, with 1.9 million residing in Los Angeles, according to the California Immigrant Data Portal.
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Trump has proposed “to carry out the largest domestic deportation operation in American history,” focusing exclusively on individuals who are in the country illegally, with a priority on deporting those with criminal records. The president-elect has already appointed hardline individuals with strict views on immigration to key positions within his administration.
He has called for utilizing the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist in this effort, though specific details on how such an operation would be carried out — or even funded — have not been provided.
Against this backdrop, Trump’s immigration agenda — or at least, early plans and speculation — has renewed debates about the fate of undocumented immigrants in California.
But what might happen in terms of immigration under another Trump presidency is still very much up in the air.
“We don’t know exactly what will happen. No one knows what’s going to happen. I don’t think the coming administration even knows what’s going to happen,” said Hiroshi Motomura, a UCLA law professor who specializes in immigration law.
There’s also the question of timing. The state of the balance of power in Washington, D.C., could hinder Trump’s ability to pass snap bills during the early months of his administration, said Matt Jarvis, an associate professor of political science at Cal State Fullerton.
While Republicans gained control of the House, their majority is slim. And Trump has recently tapped a few House members to serve in his Cabinet — which would trigger special elections and could delay a stronger Republican majority in Congress.
“He’ll need every single vote, and at a minimum, what he’s done so far is put them two votes down for the time it takes to call a special election,” Jarvis said.
Trump could take executive action to enforce certain immigration policies, but there are limits to what he can do. Executive orders can’t create new laws; they must follow the U.S. Constitution and existing laws.
There are mechanisms for expediting deportations, but there are also legal obstacles, such as immigrants’ right to be heard, Motomura said. And logistically, it’s difficult to deport millions of people.
“It’s not easy to arrest, detain and deport 10 million people, right? You’re talking about a place to hold people, even something as basic as transportation, that all has to be paid for,” Motomura said.
In fact, despite promising mass deportations, Trump deported fewer people in his first term — more than 1.5 million — than former President Barack Obama, who deported 2.9 million people in his first term and 1.9 million in his second. By some estimates, President Joe Biden’s administration has deported around 1.49 million people.
Trump’s transition team did not immediately return a request for comment.
An early response
Motomura anticipates local governments pushing back against Trump.
In fact, Democratic California officials have already begun efforts to “Trump-proof” the state.
Just two days after the election, Gov. Gavin Newsom — who is considered to have presidential aspirations of his own — asked legislators to convene in Sacramento for a special session focused on strengthening California’s legal resources to protect immigrant families, among other issues.
More locally, the Los Angeles City Council will discuss, at an unspecified future date, an initiative that would bar the use of city resources or personnel to assist in the federal enforcement of immigration laws.
And local law enforcement agencies pointed out that state law prevents them from using department resources for immigration enforcement activities.
Mara Rodriguez, a spokesperson for the San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department, said department resources — whether funding or personnel — cannot be used to investigate, interrogate, detain, detect or arrest individuals for immigration purposes.
“The Sheriff’s Department may only transfer an individual in its custody to immigration authorities if a judicial warrant or probable cause determination authorizes the transfer or if the individual has a qualifying criminal history” under the law, Rodriguez said.
In Orange County, the Santa Ana Police Department does not — and will not — participate in immigration enforcement activities, including operations by the federal Immigrations and Customs Enforcement agency, said Santa Ana Police Chief Robert Rodriguez. According to U.S. Census Bureau statistics, Santa Ana has between 70,000 and 80,000 undocumented residents.
“As someone who grew up in Santa Ana as a former undocumented person, I understand firsthand the fear and uncertainty that community members may feel regarding immigration enforcement,” said Rodriguez.
“Our department’s mission is centered around public safety, not immigration enforcement,” he said. “We believe that cooperation with federal immigration efforts could erode the trust we’ve built with our community members and discourage individuals from coming forward to report crimes or seek help when needed.”
At the federal level, it’s highly unlikely that Congress will pass any new protections before Trump takes office, said Rep. Linda Sánchez, a Whittier Democrat and chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.
That means immigrants in states like Texas or Florida, with Trump-aligned governors, remain at greater risk than immigrants in blue states like California, she said.
“Earlier this year, an enforcement-only immigration bill that had bipartisan Senate support failed because of opposition from Trump and his MAGA allies in Congress,” she said, pointing to a border security bill that failed in February after a majority of Republicans blocked it.
“Any bill to protect immigrants, including ‘Dreamers,’ would face a similar fate given Republican control of the current House — especially since Trump’s MAGA allies feel even more emboldened after the election,” Sánchez predicted.
California has the largest number of recipients of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, a policy established by the Obama administration in 2012 to protect eligible undocumented immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as children. The majority of DACA recipients in California reside in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metropolitan area.
A spokesperson for the Republican Party of California would not comment on the feasibility of Trump’s immigration plan but emphasized Trump’s commitment to securing the border, stopping the flow of fentanyl and other dangerous substances, and protecting the state’s immigrants who have “followed the established processes.”
“While we will afford President Trump the time and space needed to roll out and implement his full plan, Republicans’ focus remains on upholding public safety by ensuring that those who commit crimes and are within our borders are not afforded sanctuary,” said Hector Barajas, the state party’s Latino communications media advisor.
“The president will also likely work with foreign nations to address the root causes of illegal immigration and support measures that curb unlawful flows,” Barajas added. “We await President Trump and Congress’ next steps and look forward to evaluating additional programs that reinforce our national security and uphold the rule of law.”
‘We’ve been here before’
Local immigrant groups were quick to respond to the potential impacts a second Trump presidency could have on the communities they serve. But many groups said they felt limited in how much they could prepare in the coming months, as the specifics of Trump’s policy plans remain uncertain.
Instead, they’re looking to past examples of immigration policies implemented in the U.S., such as “Operation Wetback,” an Eisenhower campaign that was one of history’s largest deportation efforts that included some U.S. citizens, and, more recently, the series of executive orders during the first Trump administration that restricted entry into the U.S. from several predominantly Muslim countries.
“We’ve been here before,” said Masih Fouladi, executive director of the California Immigrant Policy Center.
“We’re used to playing defense and offense,” said Luz Gallegos, executive director of TODEC, a group that works to support immigrants and farm workers in the Inland Empire and Coachella Valley.
Trump, Gallegos said, will enter his second term with a deeper understanding of the workings of government.
“We prepared ahead of time,” said Gallegos. “We wanted to make sure that our organization was able to respond to the needs of our most vulnerable populations.”
TODEC has scheduled “know your rights” workshops for immigrants, especially the undocumented, which include things like what paperwork they should have in case they’re at risk of being deported and education on rights to an attorney, to remain silent and deny someone access to their home without a warrant.
Families that have undocumented heads of households, caregivers or parents need to make a plan, Gallegos said, which could look like having a caregiver affidavit in the case of parents at risk of deportation. A caregiver affidavit ensures someone can take custody of the children, which could help them avoid further trauma by keeping them out of foster care and with someone they know, Gallegos said.
Gallegos said much of TODEC’s programming was revamped during Trump’s first term to account for emergency actions for immigrants in hopes of avoiding deportation and getting quick legal, financial and educational help to immigrant communities. A 24/7 helpline was also implemented, she said.
The day after Election Day, Gallegos said her organization received a large number of calls from community members and walk-ins at all of their office sites throughout the region.
“The community is scared,” she said. “We have families whose kids didn’t want to go to school. Community members may be undocumented, but if they know their rights, they’re able to help defend them and secure their stay.”
Fouladi, with the California Immigrant Policy Center, said her organization will continue to provide legal services, including for low-wage immigrants, as well as legislative advocacy.